Good news...anywhere?

I was speaking to a good friend today in the golf industry who had just returned from an extended (40 day) trip through Asia (China, Thailand, Vietnam, etc) seeking out new golf developments. He was of the view that only a fraction of the currently conceieved projects would indeed become successful....or even get out of the ground. Most smart money has finally realized that golf courses as stand alone business models rarely are profitable. Whether as (new, high end) daily fee or private clubs...the last few years has been tough...and 2009 is a bloodbath. As my friend confirmed, Asia is not immune from the economic problems and here in the USA many established clubs are fighting for their very survival.

I expect to see 5 - 10% of golf/country clubs go bankrupt over the next 24 months in the USA. The fundamental model for many of them is flawed. Society has changed and golf is one of the current losers in the shake-up. Various ideas have been discussed...but one thing is for sure...there are no easy answers or quick fixes. Indeed, there is no cookie cutter solution...every club has it's own unique challenges and solutions.

Leisurecorp from Dubai who recently purchased Turnberry Hotel in Scotland are in the midst of a $50Million refurbishment. Recent reports suggest even Leisurecorp are under pressure to perform...no one is immune.

As the travel press has reported incessently, value added travel offers are everywhere. Availability has never been better and suppliers are working tirelessly to ensure memorable trips. The challenge is that even if trips were free, travelers will not have the confidence to travel if they feel they may not have a job or a business to return to. Lack of confidence.

We need a few weeks of sustained decent news...not great, but a material change from the depressing articles we currently see, hear & read on a daily basis.

The golf travel industry just needs Tiger to win the Masters and the U.S. Open, ideally both events by wide margins...and then off to Scotland he goes with a vast entourage in tow to see history unfold. If only it were all so easy!